“Of the 86.2m voters, 43.6 % were females compared to the 80m voters in 2008 with 44 % women voters,” said an analysis of the Free & Fair Election Network (Fafen).It has prepared a voluminous report, containing Parallel Vote Tabulations (PVT), compared to turnout and party trends of all the National Assembly constituencies.
The report said that at the provincial level, the ratio of man-woman voters has skewed further towards the male side in Punjab and Balochistan—percentages of female voters changed from 45.9 % to 2008 to 42.6 % in 2013 in Balochistan and dropped from 45 % in 2008 to 43.8 % in 2013 in Punjab.
The percentages of female voters have increased from 2008 to 2013 in Federally Administered Tribal Areas (Fata) from 30.1 % to 34.2 %, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) from 40.7 % to 42.8%, Islamabad Capital Territory (ICT) from 45.8 % to 46.3 % and more marginally in Sindh from 44.2 % to 44.8 %.
The report said a key issue observed in the last parliamentary polls was the disproportionate and significant increase in the number of rejected votes—the number, while increasing from 775,720 in 2002 to 973,694 in 2008, recorded a substantial raise of 64 % to reach 1,502,717 in the 266 constituencies observed.
It said that the issue of rejected voters is critical not merely due to the numbers but also given the skewed distribution across constituencies and regions—the numbers range from zero in NA-53 to 25,908 in NA-266.
The report said the distribution of rejected votes paints a somber picture in that only 27 of the 266 constituencies have fewer than 2,000 rejected votes. Of the rest, 78 constituencies have rejected votes from 2,000-5,000, 148 ranged in 5,001-10,000, and 10 fell in the 10,001 to 15,000 category while three constituencies had rejected votes exceeding 15,000.
From the results’ perspective, the issue is highlighted further by the fact that the number of rejected votes exceeds the margin of victory in 35 of the 266 constituencies covered in this report. Of these, the rejected votes outnumber the margin of win by less than 1,000 votes in six, indicating an acquired importance of rejected votes due to close competition.
In the other 29 constituencies, the number of rejected votes outweighs the margin of victory by as little as 1,140 (NA-153) and as many as 19,701 (NA-266).
The report said that the PVT compares the observed vote count in a sample of polling stations with the compiled election result for that constituency in order to provide evidence that confirms or disputes the official poll result.
It said the PVT methodology was developed over 20 years ago and has been applied in many countries around the world by international and domestic election monitoring organizations as a proven analytical method for verifying the accuracy of government vote counts. The PVT is based on direct observation of vote counting in a scientifically verifiable, robust sample of the polling stations in each constituency.
The report noted that although the PVT cannot measure other election-related problems like vote buying, voter intimidation, ballot box stuffing or the use of ghost polling stations, the PVTs are designed to identify potential inaccuracies in the official count by comparing it with actual observed and verified vote counts at sampled polling stations.
The PVT can help detect centralized changes in vote counts if the percentage of vote in official count offers in a statistically significant way from the percentages calculated from the PVT sample.
In cases in which electoral commissions release polling station level results, the PVT counts for sampled polling station and the commission’s polling station data can be compared directly.
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