DUBAI: It would be a little too early to say that battle lines have been drawn, but serious polarisation has begun to show between forces, both political and apolitical, on the issue of General Musharraf’s fate and the once blurred lines are now getting clearer by the day.
After meeting a number of well-informed people, both in khaki and civvies over the last week in Islamabad, Karachi and Lahore, it was apparent that the uncertainty below the surface is simmering, with everyone waiting for the other to blink.
Supporters and opponents of the political and security establishment are also coming out in the open, judging the fast pace of the developments behind the scene. The expected cooling down of the face-off led by the Defence Minister Khawaja Asif has not yet happened and despite PM Sharif’s return from China four days back, General Sharif has not called on him. Khawaja Asif’s attempts to talk to the khakis have reportedly not produced any result so far.
The pro-Musharraf elements have started rallying and raising the temperature, day by day, degree by degree. The MQM has been in the forefront to stir the pot. The Sindh Assembly scenes of tearing up papers, shouting slogans as if it was the Bhaati Gate of Lahore or Chowk Yadgar of Peshawar and the immediate calls for protests in Karachi to be followed by the rest of Pakistan, are some of these signs.
Although, Haider Abbas Rizvi of MQM, a serious leader of the party, explained to me that the issue was of their missing persons and extra-judicial killings, the timing seems more linked to the tensions created by the Musharraf trial. The missing persons have been missing for years and killings have been going on also for years, both by security people and by rival political groups.
Likewise, the PML-Q and Chaudhry Shujaat Hussain have come out in the open to support Musharraf. Dr Tahirul Qadri has announced his plans to fill the streets again in early May and Musharraf’s lawyers have been blatantly taunting the military to save their ex-chief.
The government camp has also rallied its supporters and the Nawaz-Zardari meeting on Tuesday was a major attempt to demonstrate the strength of the political side to the security establishment.
Statements that came after the meeting focused on protecting and preserving democracy, although no one has given any indication that the democratic set-up was or could be under any threat. So basically it was a show of muscle that politicians will again gang up if anyone had any overt or covert ambitions.
Nevertheless, some high profile political and non-political intermediaries have been working overtime for a rapprochement so that things do not spin out of control. One of these intermediaries, in a long talk, discussed the options the opposing sides have if things do not quickly settle down for better.
First, the military options; all concede that General Raheel Sharif has been embarrassed before his boys as he had taken upon himself to solve the matter. A military strategist and a political busybody told me identical stories separately in two cities. The script for Musharraf’s exit had been carefully written by trusted people, to the last dot. It was for his safe flight on a special private jet that had arrived at Islamabad. But hawks prevailed and the government side had second thoughts at the fag end of the deal, after Musharraf and his side had honoured their word — Musharraf had left the ICU, drove to the court, was indicted, challenged his indictment and said a few political words and the court, as expected, left it to the executive to let him go by removing his name from the ECL. That is where the government side went off the designated track.
The same night, almost in anger, Musharraf was switched from the AFIC to his home in Chak Shahzad, without even the knowledge of the civil authorities. He had been taken into protective custody by his boys.
This deadlock was not taken lightly by the Pindi boys. So what are General Raheel’s options, the informed intermediary went on. “Three options are obvious. One that he tells his commanders that he had failed and was quitting, so that someone else should pick up the thread. Obviously, if he resigns, one of those under him would have to be named as the new chief. A crisis would develop.
“The second option was that the boys be asked to suggest what the chief should do and Gen Raheel would then act accordingly. No one is ready to predict what the collective decision could be but those who know the boys don’t expect candies and cookies coming to Islamabad from Pindi.
“The third possibility was that the standoff may be allowed to continue but Musharraf could be whisked out in some manner that gives everyone a face-saving solution. He could take off from Islamabad for Karachi and then the plane develops ‘a fault’ or the weather ‘goes wrong’ or the control tower of Karachi develops a ‘malfunction’ and his flight lands in Dubai.”
Once he is out, the establishment then applies some sort of a go-slow on a few fronts where the political government needs them most. The talks with the Taliban get broken and when they retaliate, the security around key places is somehow found to be slack or something similar happens to bring the government under pressure.
The report by our Lahore correspondent Amir Mir that a warning has already been sent to the Afghan Taliban and the Haqqani Group to pick up one side — TTP or the state of Pakistan — could mean strategists are already working overtime to fix potential loopholes.
The message would be: “Without taking over or disturbing the democratic set-up, the military has enough aces up its sleeve.”The options for politicians are tricky. If the government sticks to the hard line, does not reprimand big talkers like Khawaja Asif and Saad Rafique and the Musharraf trial gets underway on a fast track, as indicated by the special court, matters could get much worse.
Politicians are grouping together and will come closer if they feel the heat of a growing threat. But if a new army chief has to be appointed, an Oct 12, 1999-like situation may develop. Mian Nawaz Sharif and Asif Zardari must have discussed these options in their one-on-one whispers. But both Sindh and Punjab would be divided, the MQM going with Pindi as it needs badly needed oxygen in London and Punjab politicians behaving like they always do, go with the stronger party.
Balochistan and KP would not matter much but Imran Khan has said repeatedly that he would not support any out-of-the-constitutional box solution, yet Imran’s old and time-tested top leadership has always been cozy with the Pindi boys, barring a few oldies. So will Imran also face a split? May be, say insiders.
The media would be a big player but already splits are visible on the lines being seen in the political spectrum. The West and the US would be confused at best and indifferent at worst because they have their vested interests in coming weeks and months. They would like a strong government in Islamabad that can deliver.
When I had asked a top US diplomat in Islamabad last week whether he favoured a “Track-2” between Pindi and Islamabad, his response was a big laugh, with a crisp comment: “It is badly needed.” But he shrugged off a suggestion to play any role.
The bottomline is that someone, somewhere who can inject some sense, must intervene now and try to get utopian, frivolous issues off the plate, as both the military and the government have plenty of real issues to tackle.
“We don’t need another five-year fight to restore democracy again, and for whom, the politicians, who are themselves proving that the type of democracy they are practising cannot handle the dirty fish in their ranks, it cannot envisage real enemies and true friends and cannot time its moves properly. It has to offer real solutions to real problems,” said a Karachiite, known to be well-informed.
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