ISLAMABAD:
The Nawaz Sharif government will receive the highest-ever foreign
inflows in the shape of loans and grants of over $10 billion during
2014-15, The News has learnt.
Following the resumption
of the World Bank and Asian Development Bank loans, as well as
increased foreign loans and grants from bilateral creditors, the
government is expecting foreign inflows of up to $10 billion against the
estimates of $5.76 billion in the budget 2013-14.
“The
net lending will stand at over Rs650 billion in the next budget as
foreign inflows will cross the Rs1,000 billion mark and can touch
Rs1,050 billion while repayment of loans in the shape of amortization
will consume almost Rs400 billion,” said the official sources.
The
finance ministry official claimed that the public debt would not surge
despite obtaining heavy foreign loans as the government would retire its
domestic debt proportionate to foreign loans. But there are certain
risks as well because in case of revising downward the GDP growth,
especially reduction in growth of Large Scale Manufacturing (LSM), the
overall GDP growth might fall below four percent.
Then the
debt-to-GDP ratio can go up instead of the official projected figures
of bringing it down, said the sources.The official circles say the
government is going to give a loud and clear message that there will be
no more dependence on domestic banks to finance the budget deficit in a
big way as had happened in the last five years when the increased demand
of borrowing had resulted in a situation that the banks had started
dictating terms knowing that the government had turned into a “desperate
borrower”.
A senior official of the Finance Division
confirmed to The News on Friday that Pakistan would become eligible for
concessionary loan of $3 billion under the IDA-17 from July 1, 2014 and
can get this amount within three year period. This funding, coupled with
the ADB and IDB loans in the pipeline, will enable Islamabad to jack up
its foreign assistance up to Rs1,000 billion against the envisaged
estimates of Rs576 billion in the outgoing fiscal year.
In
the budget 2013-14, the government had projected foreign inflows of
Rs576 billion against the revised loan and grants figure of Rs243
billion in 2012-13.Interestingly, the foreign inflows in the first
nine-month(July-Sept) period remained negative; Rs50 billion in the
outgoing fiscal year as total foreign inflows stood at Rs196 billion
against the repayment of loans to the tune of Rs246 billion in this
period.
But the situation has changed altogether since
April this year when first Saudi Arabia provided a gift of $1.5 billion
in two installments and then Pakistan’s oversubscribed Eurobond fetched
$2 billion in one go. The resumption of loans from the WB and ADB also
helped the government to get another $1.5 to $2 billion into the
national kitty.
The generous foreign inflow has increased
the foreign currency reserves level to $13 billion and will touch $15
billion soon.In another important development, the finance ministry on
Friday made changes in its fiscal operation for July-March period of the
current fiscal year and disclosed that the budget deficit was 3.8
percent instead of the earlier released figures of 3.1 percent of the
GDP for this period.
All this happened because of
treatment of $1.5 billion from Saudi Arabia, as earlier the Finance
Ministry had included it into the figures, resulting into fattening this
head up to Rs157 billion for this period.
Now in its
explanatory note on its website, the Finance Ministry states: “The high
statistical discrepancy is due to the impact of a transfer receipt from a
friendly country amounting to Rs157 billion which has been kept
separately in an account Pakistan Development Fund. Without this, impact
of statistical discrepancy would come to Rs14 billion which would imply
a deficit of Rs969 billion i.e. approximately 3.8% of GDP which is
significantly less than the last year’s deficit of 4.6% of GDP.”