US warns Russia against sending troops into Ukraine

WASHINGTON: The United States warned Friday it would not accept any use of Russian troops in Ukraine as it confirmed that Moscow had redeployed "significant" military forces near the border.

"We are monitoring the situation carefully. We will not accept the use, under any pretext, of any Russian military forces in eastern Ukraine," said Josh Earnest, a White House spokesman.

"Reports from Moscow that the Russian defense ministry is considering creating military cordons in eastern Ukraine are also troubling.

"A Russian defense ministry source told RBK news agency this week that troops were prepared to enter Ukraine´s insurgent regions in order to "put up barriers between the civilian population and the Ukrainian army.

"Ukrainian officials have separately told EU and G7 teams in Kiev that they have evidence of 10 additional tanks and sealed trucks coming over the border close to Lugansk in the past 24 hours.

"We have our own information that Russia has redeployed military forces to its border with Ukraine," State Department spokeswoman Jen Psaki told reporters.

"This is the closest Russian troops have come to the Ukrainian territory since their invasion of Crimea.

"Moscow has annexed the southern Ukrainian peninsula, after invading the territory earlier this year.

Ukraine´s Western-backed President Petro Poroshenko meanwhile declared a weeklong unilateral ceasefire to give pro-Russian rebels a chance to disarm and released a sweeping peace plan for curbing the uprising.

The 14-point initiative came after two calls made by Poroshenko to Russian strongman Vladimir Putin to try to garner his support.

The US Treasury Department blacklisted seven Ukraine separatists, saying their activities threaten the peace and sovereignty of the country.

Topping the list was Vyacheslav Ponomaryov, the rebel leader in the eastern separatist stronghold of Slavyansk whose group kidnapped observers from the European security body OSCE in May and continues to hold them.

The US is "confident" that Moscow sent tanks and rocket launchers last week from the deployment site in southwest Russia into eastern Ukraine where pro-Russian separatists are fighting to break away Kiev, Psaki said.

Washington has information that "additional tanks have been prepared for departure" at the same site, she added, saying artillery had also been gathered at a deployment site.

World media body warns of taking Geo issue to UN, EU

 

PARIS: International organisation Reporters Without Borders has expressed grave concern over the illegal closure of Geo TV in different cities of Pakistan, warning that if the Pakistan Electronic Media Regulatory Authority (Pemra) did not stop unilateral action against Jang and Geo, they would raise the issue at the United Nations (UN) and the European Union (EU).
The Reporters Without Borders Asia Desk in-charge has said that a remedy must be found to counter the dangers faced by the staff of Jang and Geo.

“In our view, the prime minister and the government must take some solid steps to provide protection to journalists. We have already reacted to the notice issued by Pemra to Geo,” he said.

In an interview with this correspondent in Paris, he said, “In Pakistan there are laws and an authority to regulate the media and they should work in accordance with the prescribed rules, and the rules should be implemented in accordance with democratic principles. It is totally against principles if five members of Pemra recommend the closure of Jang and Geo. Moreover, it is never commendable to threaten the media on one pretext or the other. We are reviewing the situation in the wake of pressure on Geo and the Jang Group from different angles.”

He said: “It is more than one month but no progress seems to have been made in the assassination bid on senior anchorperson Hamid Mir. People should be kept on board in this connection. We are waiting for the report of the commission in this regard.”

He said that he was confident that the Supreme Court would provide justice to Jang and Geo. He said that they were much concerned with the situation.

EU warns against ban on Geo

ISLAMABAD: Amidst efforts to shutdown the Geo TV, the Brussels-based European Union Trade Commission has warned that it was monitoring Pakistan’s situation, and the country’s GSP Plus status could be withdrawn in case of serious restrictions on the freedom of speech.

John Clancy, the EU Trade spokesman, was officially responding to a query regarding a sustained campaign against Pakistan’s largest TV channel Geo after an assassination bid on the channel’s most famous anchor Hamid Mir last month. Mir was shot six times by unknown assailants in the port city of Karachi on April 19.

Under the Generalised Scheme of Preferences (GSP+) scheme, Pakistan is allowed duty-free exports to the EU which has resulted in an annual increase in revenue of around €574 million (Rs78 billion).Clancy said Pakistan was granted the GSP+ preferences because it complies with the EU criteria of ratification.

“Nevertheless, this compliance is continuously monitored by the EU and, in case it is established that restrictions on freedom of speech constitute a serious violation of those conventions, the GSP+ could be removed by the EU as a result of an investigation,” Clancy told The News in an email from Belgium’s capital.

The EU is Pakistan’s single largest trade partner.The spokesman further added that apart from GSP, respect for the freedom of speech is also a key element of powerful regional bloc’s agenda.

“GSP is primarily a trade tool; the respect of human rights is relevant not only in the GSP context but is also a key element in the broader political agenda of the EU-Pakistan relations,” Clancy added.

Under the GSP+ scheme, Pakistan is bound to uphold the freedom of expression as it has signed a “binding undertaking” with the EU to effectively implement 27 core international conventions. One of these conventions is International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights 1966, which calls for complete freedom of expression in the country.

There is a strict and effective mechanism devised by the EU to monitor the implementation of these conventions. In 2010, the EU revoked Sri Lanka’s GSP+ status over its human rights record.

Earlier this month, the EU had expressed concerns over attack on journalists in Pakistan, including serious attempts on lives of Hamid Mir and Raza Rumi.Michael Mann, a spokesperson for the High Representative/ European External Action Service, had informed ‘The News’ that the matter would be taken up during the EU’s 2014 human rights dialogue with Pakistan.

“Although, the biggest threat to Pakistani journalists is armed groups, there are also allegations of abuses committed by the military against journalists who report critically on their actions,” Mann said.He said that the EU delegation in Islamabad had and would continue to raise concerns with the Pakistani authorities about the freedom of expression in Pakistan.

It can be your turn tomorrow,Farhatullah warns media outlets

 

ISLAMABAD: PPP Senator Farhatullah Babar has warned that if today some media houses thoughtlessly support banning a media group in the name of national security and patriotism, the same forces will come back to haunt them tomorrow but then there may be no one to defend them.
Speaking at a seminar on Press Freedom Day organised by the Press Council of Pakistan here on Saturday, Farhatullah Babar said that defining national security and patriotism cannot be the monopoly of any individual or a single national institution and called for an informed national debate on what constituted national security.

He said that a particular channel may be accused of editorial indiscretion but such indiscretion should in no way be equated as an assault on national security or a deliberate unpatriotic act.

He said that Shaheed Mohtarma Benazir Bhutto was also once dubbed by a section of the establishment as ‘security risk’ and the PPP knew too well how national security has often been flaunted to advance vested interests and hide uncomfortable truths.

He said that the PPP also protested against a section of the media for taking freedom and right to information too far and refusing to adopt a code of conduct but it will not favour clamping curbs on the media for real or imagined transgressions.

He said that former President Asif Ali Zardari had also stated that while it is important to have a code of conduct, it would be wrong to clamp down on the media house because of real or imagined excesses and deviations.

Later, talking to the media, the PPP leader said that rightly or wrongly, state agencies have been accused of acting beyond the confines of law, kidnapping and enforced disappearances of citizens, dumping of bodies in Balochisan, disappearance of 35 prisoners from a Malakand jail and assault on some journalists to name only a few of the instances. “The Supreme Court, the Commission on Enforced Disappearances and the Senate of Pakistan has repeatedly called for a legislative framework to regulate the functioning of these agencies,” he added.

He said the involvement of agencies in political engineering and manipulation of political parties has even been established in the Asghar Khan case and in such a situation it is in the interest of the agencies to seek to allay serious misgivings about them instead of seeking to clamp on the media.

Senator Farhatullah Babar said that the sudden resurgence of banned militant outfits and the midnight sprouting of posters and billboards supporting agencies against a section of the media in the name of patriotism and national security has raised questions.

He said that it was time for a national debate on media freedom and a code of conduct on the one hand and defining national security and who should authoritatively define the term on the other.

Pakistan warns Afghan Taliban and Haqqani Network

 

ISLAMABAD: The Pakistani establishment has made it clear to the Afghan Taliban and the Haqqani Network that the time has come for them to choose between the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan and the state of Pakistan, if they want to stay friends with Islamabad.
The unprecedented warning from the Pakistani establishment has come at a crucial time when the Pakistani Taliban are holding peace talks with the government in Islamabad, amidst demands to release over 800 Taliban prisoners and to set up a free peace zone in Waziristan.

According to well-informed sources, the warning from the establishment was prompted by the growing cooperation among the Afghan Taliban, the Haqqani Network and the Pakistani Taliban, which has reinforced the martial power of TTP in its current conflict with the security forces of Pakistan.

The TTP spokesman, Shahidullah Shahid, already admitted on October 6, 2013 in an interview that the Afghan Taliban were financially supporting the Pakistani Taliban besides providing them sanctuary in Afghanistan.

The fugitive TTP Ameer, Mullah Fazlullah, who had claimed responsibility last year for killing GOC Swat Major General Sanaullah Niazi is also being sheltered by the Afghan Taliban in the Kunar Province. However, what seemed to have angered the Pakistani establishment the most were the allegations coming from the Afghan and the Pakistani Taliban, blaming the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) for the November 11, 2013 mystery murder [in Islamabad] of Dr Nasiruddin Haqqani, the top fundraiser and organiser of Haqqani Network as well as its liaison man with the Pakistani security establishment.

Dr Nasiruddin, the real brother of Sirajuddin Haqqani, was killed by unknown gunmen in the federal capital 10 days after the November 1, 2013 killing of the TTPAmeer in a US drone attack in North Waziristan. Both were laid to rest in the Dandey Darapa Khel area of North Waziristan which also headquarters the Haqqani Network as well as the TTP.

The decades-old cozy ties between the Pakistani establishment and the Haqqanis were shattered with the mystery murder of Dr Nasiruddin when a spokesman of Haqqani network (Najeebullah) immediately blamed the Pakistani intelligence agencies. He said: “Dr Nasiruddin had been mediating between a powerful intelligence agency and the Pakistani Taliban for peace talks. But he had refused to mediate further following Hakimullah’s death and the subsequent announcement of TTP not to hold peace talks with the government. Nasiruddin’s reluctance to mediate anymore after Hakimullah’s killing must have annoyed the agency which decided to eliminate him physically,” the Haqqanis’ spokesman was quoted by the media as saying.

On his part, the TTP spokesman, Shahidullah Shahid, also blamed a Pakistani intelligence agency for the murder, vowing to take revenge. “Nasiruddin Haqqani has been martyred by none other than the ISI. He was killed because he had bravely backed our Ameer Hakimullah Mehsud,” Shahidullah told AFP when asked about possible killers.

However, on their part, the ISI circles had refuted the allegations of involvement in the murder, saying Dr Nasiruddin Haqqani was either killed by the TTP or by the Afghan National Directorate of Security.

The allegations leveled by the Afghan Taliban and the Haqqani Network were followed by Pakistani intelligence reports that both the groups were supporting and financing the TTP in its terror spree against the khakis and the civilians alike.

Indeed, the Pakistani and the Afghan Taliban are closely allied and both aim to impose a strict version of Islamic laws or Shariah on their societies. However, their leadership and targets differ with each other. While the Pakistani Taliban mostly focus their terrorist attacks in Pakistan against the security forces which they think are an American ally, the Afghan Taliban target the Afghan and the Allied forces. Defence Minister Khawaja Asif recently told Reuters in an interview that the Pakistan government was worried about the possibility of increasing convergence between the Pakistani and the Afghan Taliban. “Then the Pakistani Taliban will have a powerhouse behind them,” Khawaja Asif had said. Analysts believe that these concerns might have prompted the Pakistani security establishment to warn the Haqqanis and the Afghan Taliban against backing the TTP.

However, the close nature of ties between the Afghan and the Pakistani Taliban can be gauged from the fact that the central Shura of TTP has already referred their internal differences to the Afghan Taliban while asking Mullah Omar to intervene and send a delegation to resolve the tiff between two major factions of Mehsud militants from South Waziristan.

A senior TTP commander has been quoted in the media as saying that the Shura thought that the intra-TTP tussle was too serious and critical for them and, therefore, they decided to approach the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan, a term usually referred to the Afghan Taliban.

There are already reports that the Ameer of the Afghan Taliban is persuading the Pakistani Taliban to end their infighting in South Waziristan as he wants to secure their support against the foreign troops in Afghanistan to launch the annual spring offensive.

Analysts believe the Pakistani security establishment’s warning was meant to dissuade the Haqqanis and the Afghan Taliban from siding with the Pakistani Taliban in their conflict with the state of Pakistan at a time when the Allied forces are set to withdraw from Afghanistan and both the Afghan militia groups would require the crucial support of Islamabad to stage a comeback in Kabul. In fact, the ultimate agenda of the Pakistani Taliban is the establishment of their own state — the Islamic Emirate of Waziristan [on the pattern of Mullah Omar’s Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan] in Fata where they can impose the Islamic Shariah. On the other hand, the ultimate agenda of the Afghan Taliban is the revival of the lost Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan.

Therefore, following the Pakistani establishment’s warning, Mullah Omar will have to decide whether to befriend the Pakistani Taliban or the state of Pakistan. Commander Sirajuddin Haqqani of the Haqqani Network is bound to follow suit being a disciple of Mullah Omar just like the Pakistani and the Afghan Taliban. Well informed sources in the establishment say logically speaking Mullah Omar would like to remain a friend of Pakistan instead of inviting its wrath by befriending the TTP.

However, there are those in the Taliban circles who believe that if the Afghan Taliban succeed in regaining power in Kabul after the withdrawal of the Allied troops, there would be greater chances of their joining hands with the Pakistani Taliban whose aims and objectives and those of the Ameerul Momineen are the same. However, the establishment circles say, in such an eventuality, the Afghan Taliban and the Haqqani Network must know that “strategic depth” would no longer be a consideration of the establishment if the Pakistan government finally orders a military action in North Waziristan after the failure of the talks with the TTP.

Russia warns Ukraine

 

AP Pro-Russian activists set their flags over the entrance to the regional administration building in Donetsk, Ukraine on Tuesday.

Russia warned Ukraine’s authorities that the use of force to suppress protests in the Russian-speaking eastern regions could trigger civil war.

Moscow voiced particular concern over the deployment in the east of ‘about 150’ American mercenaries from the Greystone private army disguised as Ukrainian military personnel.

Kiev has reportedly sent army and national guard forces to eastern Ukraine to quell pro-Russian protests. On Monday protesters in Donetsk proclaimed the region’s independence from Ukraine and called for a referendum to join Russia.

“We are calling for the immediate cessation of any military preparations, which are fraught with unleashing civil war,” the Russian Foreign Ministry said in a statement on Tuesday.

Late on Monday Ukrainian security forces evicted pro-Russian protesters from the local government headquarters in Kharkiv and the Ukrainian security service building in Donetsk which had been captured on Sunday, the government in Kiev announced. However, protesters continued to occupy the security services headquarters in Lugansk. They have armed themselves with firearms seized from the arsenal in the building.

Ukraine’s Interior Minister Avakov said on Tuesday about 70 ‘separatists’ had been detained in Kharkiv.

“An anti-terrorist operation has been launched. The city centre is blocked along with metro stations. Do not worry. Once we finish, we will open them again,” he wrote on his Facebook page.

Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov called U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry and German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier to press the need for a ‘deep and transparent constitutional reform involving all political forces and regions’ that would make Ukraine a federative non-bloc state.

Mr. Lavrov said Moscow was ready to take part in four-party talks over the crisis with Ukraine, the European Union (EU) and the U.S. proposed by Mr. Kerry. However, he said protesters from Ukraine’s eastern regions should also take part in the talks and their agenda should include a constitutional reform in Ukraine.

“No multilateral talks will be effective if they ignore the legitimate interests of Ukraine’s south and east and their indignation over the way Kiev has been treating them,” Mr. Lavrov told a press conference in Moscow on Tuesday.

The Russian Minister angrily rejected U.S. claims that the protests in Ukraine’s eastern regions were ‘a carefully orchestrated campaign with Russian support.’

To say this means ‘laying their own blame at our door,’ Mr. Lavrov retorted, recalling that the U.S. had spent billions of dollars financing pro-Western protests in Kiev, which led to the fall of President Viktor Yanukovych in February.

Turkey PM claims victory, warns rivals ´will pay price

ANKARA: Turkey´s Premier Recep Tayyip Erdogan claimed victory for his Islamic-rooted party in Sunday´s key local elections and warned his foes they will "pay the price" for plotting his downfall.

"Those who attacked Turkey got disappointed," Erdogan told a jubilant crowd of thousands, speaking from the balcony of his party´s Ankara headquarters after months of turmoil marked by street clashes, sleaze claims and an Internet clampdown.

"You have supported your prime minister. I thank you infinitely," Erdogan told the crowd, his voice still hoarse from marathon campaigning for the municipal polls that were seen as a referendum on his 11-year rule.

Erdogan, 60, has been eyeing a run for the presidency in August -- the first time voters will directly elect the head of state -- and his midnight victory speech sounded at times like the start of his next campaign.

"You have protected the independence struggle of the new Turkey," the man often called "the sultan" told his flag-waving followers, interrupted by chants of "Turkey is proud of you", "Stand tall, don´t bow" and "God is great".

With 95 percent of all ballots counted, Erdogan´s Justice and Development Party (AKP) emerged well ahead of its rivals on 45 percent of the vote, with the opposition Republican People´s Party (CHP) on 28.5 percent. The AKP looked headed for strong victories nationwide, including in the biggest city Istanbul and the capital Ankara, over the secular opposition.

But in Ankara the main opposition, the centre-left CHP, said the vote was close. A definitive result in the capital awaited vote recounts, which were under way in some districts.

Erdogan again threatened to pursue his declared nemesis Fethullah Gulen, a reclusive Muslim cleric whom he accuses of running a parallel "deep state" undermining his government from faraway rural Pennsylvania.

Erdogan has accused loyalists of the 73-year-old imam in the police and justice systems of damaging leaks on Twitter and of bugging secret security talks on Syria before then releasing the explosive audio recording on YouTube.

"We will enter their caves and ... they will pay the price," he warned. "How can you threaten our national security on Syria? Syria is currently in a state of war against us." "There won´t be a state within a state," he stressed.

Months of political turmoil -- fought out in fierce street clashes and the Internet leaks -- have left Turkey deeply polarised between Erdogan´s Muslim conservative supporters and a secular political camp. Erdogan´s inner circle has been hit by the damaging online leaks since December, with wide-ranging bribery and sleaze claims against the prime minister and his political and business allies going viral in the youthful country.

The spiralling crisis has sent down the Turkish lira and stock market in recent months and rattled investors´ faith in a Muslim democracy that has often been described as a model for post-Arab Spring countries.

The premier´s heavy-handed response to being challenged on the streets and online has included a police crackdown on protesters in Istanbul that left eight dead and thousands wounded and arrested, and blocks on Twitter and YouTube.

The crackdown has alienated NATO allies and detracted from Erdogan´s much lauded record of driving an economic boom and transforming the country into an emerging global player."Our democracy must be strengthened and cleansed," said Kemal Kilicdaroglu, leader of the opposition CHP, as he cast his vote Sunday.

Despite a round of reprimands from foreign powers and human rights groups, the "results show us that Erdogan has survived these scandals with very little damage," Mehmet Akif Okur of Ankara´s Gazi University told AFP. "Voters believe that if Erdogan falls, they will fall with him. No matter how serious the corruption allegations are, the voters supported Erdogan to keep the status they have acquired under his rule," he added."

Seeing that his ´authoritarian´ measures have not hurt him at the ballot box, Erdogan will be more ambitious in pushing through tougher policies. I would expect lawsuits against the Gulen movement and arrests in the coming days. "Away from the national issues, local rivalries that regularly flare up at elections in Turkey left at least nine people dead Sunday.

Khursheed warns of disaster if something happens to Bilawal

 

ISLAMABAD: Leader of the Opposition in the National Assembly Syed Khursheed Shah has said that there would be a disaster if something happened to Bilawal Bhutto.
He said that an anchor of a private television channel was attacked in Lahore the day after Bilawal Bhutto received an intimidating letter.Talking to the media here, he asked how Bilawal could undertake a visit to the Punjab under these circumstances.

The Punjab government should take suitable steps in this regard, he said. He said that Zardari never applied for the return of any locket and Benazir Bhutto had also denied any connection with any such locket. The jeweller had also confirmed what Benazir had said.

He said former president Pervez Musharraf had become a bone stuck in the throat of the government. “If he goes out ofthe country, there will be no harm because people have gone out of the country earlier also,” he said.Shah advised Hamza Shahbaz to avoid issuing statements instigating differences amongst the political parties because brotherhood between them should continue.

He refuted the news of Bilawal becoming the chief minister of Sindh. He explained that the PPP was a party at the federation level and not a provincial party. Bilawal would come at the federal level.

Referring to the talks process between the Taliban and the government, he said so far they had not been taken into confidence. “We have come to know about the talks process through newspapers,” he said. He said similar talks should also he held with the Baloch leaders.

Clinton warns of further Russian aggression

A child plays near a Russian soldier, right, while Ukrainian soldiers look on from behind gates as the Russian soldier guards the gate of an Ukrainian infantry base in Perevalne, Ukraine.

Other countries near Russia could also face aggression if President Vladimir Putin is allowed to get away with his actions in Ukraine, former U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said on Tuesday.
Clinton, a potential 2016 presidential contender, called Russia’s move to annex Crimea illegal and a violation of international law.
“If he’s allowed to get away with that, I think you’ll see a lot of other countries either directly facing Russian aggression or suborned with their political systems so that they are so intimidated that in effect they are transformed into vassals, not sovereign democracies,” Clinton said at an event hosted by the Board of Trade of Metropolitan Montreal at the Palais des Congres.
In response to a question about Ukraine, Clinton advocated a “two-track” approach toward resolving the crisis that included economic incentives and “standing up for our values.”
Along with sanctions against Russia, Clinton argued for increased financial and technical support for a democratic government in Kiev.
She also said Europe needs to be encouraged to find other energy sources so they aren’t dependent on Russian oil and gas.
“We don’t have to be rattling sabers and all that. That’s not useful,” she said.
“But people need to get moving in protecting themselves against future intimidation. It might take a year, it might take two years, but it needs to be slow and steady. And then once again people will see the difference, they will see the choices.”
Clinton referred to the conflict as a “clash of values” and “an effort by Putin to rewrite the boundaries of post-World War II Europe.”
“We’re going to stand up against illegal acts and we’re going to demonstrate that we have a better model, just like we did for 50 years. That takes continuity and persistence and it takes a consensus across the political spectrum in our country, certainly,” she said.
Clinton said she’s hopeful another Cold War can be avoided.
“Obviously nobody wants to see that. I think that’s primarily up to Putin.”
Earlier this month, Clinton likened Putin’s actions on the Crimean Peninsula to those of Adolf Hitler in the 1930s. She has also said he is a tough but thin-skinned leader who is squandering his country’s potential.

US ready to impose sanctions on Russia, Obama warns Putin

In this March 6, 2014, photo, President Barack Obama talks about the situation in Ukraine, in the briefing room of the White House in Washington.

President Barack Obama told Russian President Vladimir Putin on Sunday the United States rejected the results of a secession referendum in Ukraine’s Crimea region and warned that Washington was ready to impose sanctions on Moscow over the crisis.
With Washington and its European allies expected to slap “targeted” punitive measures on Russian officials as early as Monday, the White House said Obama made clear to Putin that the dispute could still be resolved diplomatically but that Russia first must halt military incursions into Ukrainian territory.
Confirming what was considered a foregone conclusion in Sunday’s hastily called referendum in Crimea, a region with a Russian-speaking majority, regional authorities said that with over half the vote counted 95.5 percent had chosen the option of annexation of the strategic peninsula by Moscow.
The regional government in Crimea, now controlled by Russian forces, went ahead with the ballot despite fierce US and European opposition, underscoring the West’s limited leverage in the worst standoff of its kind since the end of the Cold War.
“He (Obama) emphasized that Russia’s actions were in violation of Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity and that, in coordination with our European partners, we are prepared to impose additional costs on Russia for its actions,” the White House said in a summary of Obama’s telephone call with Putin.
Obama suggested to Putin that the referendum was a sham carried out “under duress of Russian military intervention” and Washington and the international community would never accept the results, the White House said.
According to the Kremlin, Putin told Obama the referendum on union with Russia was legitimate the two leaders agreed on the need to cooperate to stabilize Ukraine. The readouts of the call from both capitals spoke of the need to deploy international monitors to Ukraine.
Amid accusations from Republican critics that Obama had not shown enough resolve against Putin, the US administration appeared intent on proving it was not bluffing over its threat of consequences for the seizure of Crimea.
US options to prevent Russian from formally absorbing the strategic region are few. But some officials in Washington are hopeful that instead of pressing ahead with such a provocative action, Putin may hold off for now, seeking to avoid further escalation of the crisis.
White House senior adviser Dan Pfeiffer said the administration would step up pressure on Russia. “You can expect sanctions designations in the coming days,” Pfeiffer told NBC’s “Meet the Press,” as the administration prepared to identify Russians whom the United States will seek to punish with visa bans and asset freezes the president authorized earlier this month.

Iran warns Austrian embassy over Ashton meeting with rights activists: IRNA

DUBAI: Iran has warned the Austrian embassy in Tehran after it hosted a meeting between the EU foreign policy chief and Iranian human rights activists during her first visit to Iran over the weekend, the state news agency IRNA said on Monday.
Ashton met several human rights activists including the mother of Iranian blogger Sattar Beheshti at the embassy on Saturday, which coincided with international women's day.
Beheshti died in jail a few days after he was arrested in 2012 over a blog critical of the government.
"These actions (the meeting) will lead to an increased suspicion between our people and the West and it doesn't help relations between Iran and Europe," Iranian foreign ministry spokeswoman Marzieh Afkham was quoted as saying by IRNA.
Afkham had conveyed an official warning to the Austrian embassy in Tehran over the "unplanned meeting," IRNA said, without elaborating. Ashton's two-day visit was the first by an EU foreign policy chief since 2008.
Ashton had said after meeting Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammed Javad Zarif there was a potential for a dialogue with Tehran over human rights issues in the future.
Human rights activists fear that Tehran's rapprochement with the West since pragmatist President Hassan Rouhani's election in June could lead to a relaxation of international scrutiny of its widely criticised human rights record.
At least 80 people and perhaps as many as 95 have been executed in Iran already this year, a surge in the use of the death penalty that has dampened hopes for human rights reforms under Rouhani, the United Nations said on Feb. 21.

Reserve Bank warns on housing prices

The governor of the Reserve Bank has warned home owners not to bet that property prices will keep rising especially in the hot Sydney market.

Glenn Stevens says borrowers should be wary about taking on too much debt, reminding speculators that while property prices can rise, they can also fall.

Mr Stevens also said that while current household debt levels were not " disastrous " he'd be worried about an acceleration of credit growth to home buyers.

Business editor Peter Ryan has been listening to Mr Stevens' comments before the House Economics Committee in Sydney and he joins me now in the studio.

Peter, there's been stellar growth in Sydney property prices over the past six months or so. Is Glenn Stevens worried that investors are going to get burned?

PETER RYAN: Well Peter, so far the Reserve Bank hasn't been buying into concerns about a property price bubble especially in Sydney, but in the past the Reserve Bank has said that fears about a potential bubble are "excessively alarmist", but what Glenn Stevens has been saying this morning is that the rapid price growth seen in the late 1990s and early 2000s won't be repeated.

He even went on commercial breakfast television four years ago to appeal to mum and dad investors rather the professional investors about the risks in property.

But now in 2014, interest rates are at record lows and are banks competing for business, so there are dangers that home buyers could borrow too much and get burned when rates start rising, or rising unemployment could create mortgage defaults and falling property prices.

So Glenn Stevens delivered this timely reminder when he addressed the House Economics Committee in Sydney this morning.

GLENN STEVENS: I would repeat what I've said before, then Sydney in particular, but not just Sydney now. There's been a very big run-up in investor activity and that's okay but people need to keep in mind prices don't just rise, they can fall.

They have fallen and we need to be careful that we don't take on too much leverage on the expectation that ever rising prices for the asset make that work out because I think that would be a dangerous assumption.

PETER LLOYD: That's the Governor of the Reserve Bank, Glenn Stevens. In the studio, business editor Peter Ryan.

Now Peter, Mr Stevens also talked about household debt which is an area the Reserve Bank watches very closely. Is that a new danger zone when mixed with rising property prices?

PETER RYAN: Well, the household debt is always a potential danger zone for the Reserve Bank but since the global financial crisis, households have been paying down a lot of debt and in recent years we've been hearing a lot about the cautious consumer and that's been reflected in economic data such as retail trade.

Even so, there's been a gradual pickup in credit to households recently but still that's in the 5 to 6 per cent per year range.

But to use Glenn Stevens' words that "that's not disastrous". That was an interested phrase that he used to show that he's concerned that, if household debt moves up to the next level, and when you combine that with the willingness of banks to lend, we could be into a new era of trouble.

GLENN STEVENS: I don't think we're going to go back to the 15, 17 per cent growth that we saw for many years and I do think if we did see that, we should be asking whether that's wise given the levels of debt that households begin from.

As you know, I haven't been amongst the people who say that the present level of household debt relative to income or relative to assets is disastrous. I'm not in that camp, but I am in the camp that says it's pretty high now and we'd surely be asking for trouble if we see a big step up from where we are.

PETER LLOYD: Reserve Bank Governor, Glenn Stevens before the House Economics Committee in Sydney this morning.

Now Peter Ryan, Glenn Stevens was also asked about the role of foreign investment in driving up property prices in major cities like Sydney. Does he see problems there?

PETER RYAN: Well, Glenn Stevens, he said that he does do a lot of travel through Asia on stopovers through Singapore and for example there he sees there's a lot of interest in Australian property speculation.

But he says that Australians appear to like to being open to foreign investment, and housing investment is after all, a form of that - the same way foreigners buying shares in listed companies here.

Mr Stevens says it can't be beyond Australia's capacity to meet the demands of both foreign buyers and the legitimate demands of Australian citizens but if there was a supply constraint, Mr Stevens said that would be a legitimate issue worth addressing but Mr Stevens said this really comes down to how welcoming Australia is to foreign investment and that is an issue that he appeared to be quite comfortable in handing over to the Australian Government.

PETER LLOYD: And finally did he have any light to shed on interest rates?

PETER RYAN: Well, judging by the comments about property prices and household debt Peter, it seems that interest rates are on hold at that low of 2.5 per cent. Mr Stevens said there would be a period of stability in the cash rate - something he said before but he didn't know how long rates would hold steady.

There was a tiny bit of changed language. In the past Mr Stevens said there might be scope to cut again. Today before the House Economics Committee he said I don't think we need to cut again at this point in time.

Now Mr Stevens has been trying to pull the Australian dollar lower, closer to its long term average of about 85 US cents, but those comments of no more rate cuts actually pushed the dollar as high as 91.11 US cents and it's now a little bit lower but that was a bit of excitement on currency markets this morning.

Obama warns US planning steps to isolate Russia

WASHINGTON: President Barack Obama warned on Monday that the United States was planning a string of economic and diplomatic sanctions to "isolate" Russia if it does not reverse its incursion into Ukraine.
"Russia is on the wrong side of history," Obama said, declaring that the world was all but united in viewing Moscow's dispatch of troops to Crimea as a violation of international law.
A day before Secretary of State John Kerry arrives in Kiev to show US backing for Ukraine's right to chart its own future, Washington expanded on the "costs" Russia may have to pay for its action.
It pointed to the sharp decline of the ruble as evidence Russia was already paying a heavy price and Obama asked Congress to put an economic support package for Ukraine on the top of its agenda.
"What cannot be done is for Russia, with impunity, to put its soldiers on the ground and violate basic principles that are recognized around the world," Obama said.
"What we are also indicating to the Russians is that if, in fact, they continue on the current trajectory that they're on, that we are examining a whole series of steps -- economic, diplomatic -- that will isolate Russia."
Obama said that after his round of calls to European leaders he was convinced the world was "largely united" in the belief that Russia had violated Ukraine's territorial integrity and international law.
At the State Department, spokeswoman Jennifer Psaki said Washington was prepared to "move forward" on sanctions against Russia and that US calls for action were already having an impact.
"If you look at the sharp decline of the Russian ruble, if you look at the Russian stock market today, those are just two examples," she said.
Psaki said there was no time-frame yet for when the United States could impose sanctions, but added "we're looking at a broad range of options, whether that's individuals, whether that's institutions, whether that's officials, those are all under consideration."
Possible options include visa bans or asset freezes on members of Russia's political and financial elite. Steps could also be taken against some Russian financial institutions.
Obama hinted that. after already suspending cooperation with Russia on G8 matters, US partners would boycott the group's summit in the Russian resort of Sochi in June.
As Russia appeared to tighten its grip on the Crimea peninsula, the State Department warned any Russian attack on Ukrainian forces in the southern region would be a "dangerous" escalation.
US officials said they were working to nail down reports that Moscow's forces had warned Ukranian troops to surrender or face attacks.
Kerry was due to leave Washington later Monday to travel to Kiev in a show of support for the interim leadership which took over from ousted president Viktor Yanukovych.
Kerry had also said last week that he would meet with his Russian counterpart Sergei Lavrov on the sidelines of talks due to be held on Wednesday in Rome.
But with the escalation of tensions in the southern Crimea peninsula over the weekend, Psaki said Kerry's schedule during his trip to Rome and Paris was still unconfirmed though did not rule out a meeting between the two ministers.
Washington is also pushing for a meeting of the four signatories of a 1994 Budapest agreement under which Ukraine agreed to give up its Soviet-era nuclear weapons in exchange for guarantees over its sovereignty and territorial integrity.
The United States, Russia, Britain and Ukraine are all signatories to the treaty. On Capitol Hill, key lawmakers were pushing for the swift passage of a US economic support package for Ukraine.
A frequent Obama critic, Republican Senator John McCain said sending US forces to the region would be unthinkable, butll accused Obama of failing to stand up to Putin.
"The president of the United States believes that the Cold War is over," McCain said. "That's fine, it is over but Putin doesn't believe it's over."
In another show of US anger, the White House took the symbolic step of announcing that Washington would not send an official delegation to the Winter paralympics, which begin in Sochi on Friday. US athletes however will still take part.

Obama warns Putin over Crimea incursion

MOSCOW: US President Barack Obama told President Vladimir Putin Saturday that Russia was flouting international law and risking political isolation by its military incursion into Ukraine's Crimea region, as international condemnation increased.
The 90-minute telephone call between the two leaders -- the kind of direct confrontation between the White House and the Kremlin rarely seen since the Cold War -- came after the Russian parliament gave Putin the green light to send troops into neighbouring Ukraine.
Ukraine's interim leaders immediately responded by both putting its army on heightened alert and voicing confidence that war will be averted because it would break the two neighbours' historic relations for good.
The North Atlantic Treaty Organisation called emergency talks with its 28 ambassadors for Sunday at 1200 GMT to discuss the escalating crisis.
Ukraine's Foreign Minister Andriy Deshchytsya said Kiev had appealed to NATO "with a request to consider all options to defend the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Ukraine", according to the Interfax news agency.
British Foreign Secretary William Hague said ahead of a visit to Kiev on Sunday that he had summoned the Russian ambassador to register his concerns over Moscow's "potentially grave threat to the sovereignty, independence and territorial integrity of Ukraine".
Obama told Putin that his actions were a "breach of international law, including Russia's obligations under the UN Charter, and of its 1997 military basing agreement with Ukraine".
US officials have warned that Obama and other European leaders were unlikely to show up at the G8 summit in the showcase Black Sea resort of Sochi if the Ukraine crisis was not resolved.
"Going forward, Russia's continued violation of international law will lead to greater political and economic isolation," the White House warned in a statement.
Condemning the "unwarranted escalation of tensions", EU foreign affairs chief Catherine Ashton said the 28-nation bloc's foreign ministers would hold crisis talks on Monday.
US Secretary of State John Kerry told Moscow it was risking regional peace and security.
"The effect on US-Russian relations and on Russia's international standing will be profound," Kerry said in a statement.
Kerry also revealed he had held a joint conference call earlier in the day with his global counterparts "to coordinate on next steps".
A bloody three-month uprising in the former Soviet republic swept pro-EU leaders to power in Kiev, while also sparking a pro-Kremlin backlash on the Crimean peninsula.
In a stark escalation of what threatens to become the worst crisis in relations between Moscow and the West since the Cold War, Kalashnikov-wielding militia hoisted the Russian flag over Crimean government buildings and seized control of the peninsula's airports.
Pro-Kremlin rallies also swept several big eastern and southern Ukrainian cities whose cultural links to Moscow stretch back centuries and whose economic survival depends largely on Russian trade.

Medvedev warns Ukraine new leaders

MOSCOW: Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev said on Facebook on Sunday that Ukraine's leaders had seized power illegally, and predicted their rule would end with "a new revolution" and new bloodshed.

Medvedev said that, while Viktor Yanukovich had practically no authority, he remained the legitimate head of state according the constitution, adding: "If he is guilty before Ukraine hold an impeachment procedure and try him."

"Everything else is lawlessness. The seizure of power," Medvedev said on his Facebook page. "And that means such order will be extremely unstable. It will end in a new revolution. New bloodshed."

The remarks were part of a series of Russian statements attacking the legitimacy of the pro-Western government that has been formed since Yanukovich fled Kiev more than a week ago.

He surfaced on Friday in Russia. Russian President Vladimir Putin obtained consent from the Kremlin-controlled parliament on Saturday to send the Russian military into Ukraine if he wishes, citing the need to protect Russian citizens and Russian-speakers in the neighbouring state.

"Russia is ready to develop multi-faceted, respectful relations with brotherly Ukraine mutually beneficial and effective relations," Medvedev said.

"But Ukraine for us is not a group of people who, pouring blood on the Maidan (Kiev's main square), seized power in violation of the constitution and other state laws."

"Russia needs a strong and stable Ukraine. A predictable and economically thriving partner," Medvedev said. "Not a poor relation that's always standing with a hand held out."

Russia promised heavily indebted Ukraine a $15 billion bailout after Yanukovich turned his back on deals with the European Union and instead said he would pursue closer trade ties with Russia, but suspended delivery as his grip loosened.

Gazprom warns Ukraine over ’huge’ debt of $1.55bn

MOSCOW: Ukraine owes Russian gas giant Gazprom a "huge" debt of $1.55 bn for unpaid gas and may not be able to keep the discount it currently enjoys for Russian gas imports, the firm said on Saturday.
"We have good relations with Ukraine, the transit is working, but they just need to pay for the gas. The debt is $1.549 billion, it is huge," Gazprom spokesman Sergei Kupriyanov told the RIA Novosti news agency.
"Clearly, with this debt Ukraine may not be able to keep its discount (to market price) for the gas. The agreements on the discount forsee a full and timely payment."

Hollande warns Ukrainian sovereignty under threat

PARIS: French President Francois Hollande warned that Ukraine's sovereignty was under threat following the Russian parliament's decision on Saturday to authorise sending troops.
The move by the upper house of parliament "poses a real threat to the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Ukraine," Hollande said in a statement.

Obama warns Kremlin of 'costs' as 'several hundred' pro-Russian troops storm Crimea

"The United States will stand with the international community in affirming that there will be costs for any military intervention in Ukraine," declares US President Barack Obama. PHOTO: FILE

SIMFEROPOL: Pro-Russian forces tightened their grip on airports and strategic sites on Ukraine’s Crimea peninsula Friday despite US President Barack Obama warning Moscow not to intervene.
Heavily armed troops in uniforms with no national insignia took up positions around government buildings and the airport in Simferopol, as Ukrainian officials accused Russia of “naked aggression.”
In Washington, a US defence official said Moscow is thought to have already sent “several hundred” more troops into the Russian-speaking region, where it already has a major military base.
In a hastily scheduled White House statement with echoes of former Cold War stand-offs, Obama warned his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin to respect Ukraine’s independence.
“The United States will stand with the international community in affirming that there will be costs for any military intervention in Ukraine,” he declared.
The US leader did not elaborate on the nature of these costs but, in an early sign of anger, aides warned that Obama might skip June’s G8 summit in Russia’s Sochi if the Kremlin’s troops enter Ukraine.
Ukraine’s interim president Oleksandr Turchynov, who took power after Russian-backed leader Viktor Yanukovych fled last week, directly addressed the Kremlin leader from Kiev.
“I personally appeal to President Putin to immediately stop military provocation and to withdraw from the Autonomous Republic of Crimea… It’s a naked aggression against Ukraine,” he said.
In New York, the UN Security Council held an emergency meeting to discuss the crisis, but the talks broke up without a formal statement.
Council president Raimonda Murmokaite was able to say only that members expressed support for Ukraine’s territorial integrity and sovereignty and for “inclusive political dialogue”.
‘Naked aggression’
A spokesperson for Russia’s Crimea-based Black Sea Fleet denied its forces were involved, but uniformed men with assault rifles, body armour and helmets were in evidence around Simferopol.
They sealed off the airport, where civilian flights were halted, and set up barricades to protect Crimea’s autonomous government.
Putin this week stoked concerns that Moscow might use its military might to sway the outcome of the standoff by ordering snap combat drills near the border involving 150,000 troops and nearly 900 tanks.
Crimea was attached to Ukraine in 1954 when both Russia and its smaller neighbour were part of the Soviet Union, and most of the population are still ethnic Russians.
Civilian defence groups have sprung up in Crimea since the street uprising in Kiev that last week ousted the pro-Russian president and installed a Western-leaning interim government.
They have torn down some Ukrainian flags, and are angrily preparing for what they fear may be an intervention by extremists from mainly Ukrainian-speaking western Ukraine.
“We’re here to prevent fascists or radicals from western Ukraine from coming here by plane,” said Vladimir, a 46-year-old former military officer in a group outside Simferopol airport.
Witnesses reported seeing armoured personnel carriers rumble across Simferopol’s main streets and at least eight cargo planes bearing the Russian flag landing at a Ukrainian military air base.
A senior official in Crimea, Sergiy Kunitsyn, told local television that 13 Russian cargo planes carrying nearly 2,000 troops had landed at the base by Friday night.
Yanukovych, meanwhile, defiantly surfaced in Russia after a week in hiding, and bitterly attacked the new authorities in Kiev.
The untested new team – made up in part of leaders of the protests that gripped Kiev for three months – is grappling not only with growing separatism fears but also the risk of a devastating debt default.
But IMF chief Christine Lagarde said there was no need to panic, playing down reports that Ukraine is in urgent need of up to $15 billion to maintain government payments.
Ukraine’s plunging currency rebounded from record lows after Lagarde moved to send a fact-finding mission to Kiev that could open the way for the quick release of about $2.5 billion in EU and US loans.
Yanukovych dramatically ended guesswork about his whereabouts by walking out on stage before 200 reporters in Rostov-on-Don – a Russian industrial city less than two hours’ drive from the border with Ukraine.
The 63-year-old vowed to continue to fight for Ukraine’s future but said he would boycott a snap presidential poll that the new Western-backed leadership has set for May 25.
He called the new leadership “young neo-fascists” and blamed the “irresponsible policies” of the West for the escalating crisis.
Yanukovych also revealed he had spoken by phone with – but had not met – Putin and expressed surprise that his ally had not yet spoken out on Ukraine since his flight.
The Kremlin issued a brief statement after Yanukovych’s comments, saying Putin had stressed in phone talks with EU leaders “the extreme importance of not allowing a further escalation of violence.”
Ukraine’s bloodiest crisis since independence in 1991 erupted in November when Yanukovych rejected a deal to open the door to eventual EU membership in favour of closer ties with Russia.
Swiss bank accounts
Switzerland meanwhile said it was freezing the assets of 20 Ukrainian figures – including Yanukovych and his multi-millionaire son Oleksandr – and also launching a money-laundering probe.
Austria and Liechtenstein announced similar moves against Ukrainian figures whom the new authorities say stole billions of dollars in state funds.

Hagel warns Pakistan leaders over border protests

In this handout photograph released by Pakistan's Inter Services Public Relations (ISPR) on December 9, 2013 Pakistan's army chief General Raheel Sharif (R) meets with US defence secretary Chuck Hagel at the General Headquarters in Rawalpindi.

ISLAMABAD: Defence Secretary Chuck Hagel warned Pakistani leaders on Monday that if they don't resolve protests stalling some military shipments across the border with Afghanistan, it could be difficult to maintain political support in Washington for an aid program that has sent billions of dollars to Islamabad, defense officials said.

In response, the officials said, Hagel received assurances from the Pakistanis that they would take ''immediate action'' to resolve the shipment problem. The officials did not provide details on how that might be done.
Hagel departed from Pakistan after a brief visit during which he held talks with Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif and the country's new army chief General Raheel Sharif on Monday.
In the first visit by a US defence secretary in nearly four years, Hagel flew from Kabul to Islamabad as Washington seeks to defuse tensions over controversial US drone strikes and Islamabad's role in Afghanistan.
Ties between Washington and Islamabad have been seriously strained over US drone strikes in Pakistan's tribal belt as well as Afghan Taliban sanctuaries inside Pakistan's borders.
After greeting Prime Minister Sharif at the start of their talks, Hagel said Pakistan and neighbouring Afghanistan had a “lot of common and mutual interests” and that he looked forward to discussing regional issues.
The meeting between the US Defence Secretary and Pakistani prime minister was also attended by Foreign Secretary Jalil Abbas Jilani, Federal Finance Minister Ishaq Dar, Federal Defence Minister Khawaja Asif and US special envoy for Afghanistan and Pakistan James Dobbins.
Hagel was in Pakistan “in recognition of the tremendous support that Pakistan has provided in the war on terror”, a senior US defence official told reporters.
The defence secretary wanted “to deepen our defence partnership” and to affirm continued US military assistance, the official said.
“There is some friction in the relationship” and Hagel wished to tackle that “head on”, he added.
The visit came as Hagel's deputies withdrew Sunday's statement that said Nato shipments out of Afghanistan through Pakistan were to resume due to the end of anti-drone protests.
Moreover, Hagel also met with Pakistan's army chief General Raheel Sharif at the General Headquarters in Rawalpindi.
Issues concerning defence relationship, Pak-US bilateral ties and regional stability came under discussion.
US Secretary of Defence was accompanied by US Ambassador in Pakistan Richard Olson and US Acting Assistant Secretary of Defence Dr Peter Lavoy.
In recent weeks, activists opposed to the drone raids forcibly searched trucks in northwest Pakistan in a campaign to disrupt Nato supply routes through the Torkham gate border crossing.
The club-wielding protesters have prompted US officials to halt the shipments to protect the safety of truck drivers ferrying Nato equipment.
Contractors were still concerned over anti-drone protests and the suspension had not been lifted, officials travelling with Hagel said.
Torkham gate is the main overland route used by the Americans and Nato to withdraw military hardware from Afghanistan as part of the troop pullout set to wrap up by the end of 2014.
President Barack Obama has defended the drone strikes as an effective, lawful tool used with restraint to target suspected al Qaeda militants.
But human rights groups and Pakistani politicians say the missile attacks have killed innocent civilians and must stop.
The Pakistani government had previously blocked the routes for seven months following US airstrikes that accidentally killed two dozen soldiers on the Afghan border in November 2011.
Pakistan finally reopened the routes after the US apologised.
The rift led the US to sever most aid to Pakistan for some time, but relations were restored in July 2012.
Since then, the US has delivered over $1.15 billion in security assistance to Pakistan, including advanced communications equipment, roadside bomb jammers, night vision goggles and surveillance aircraft.
US officials are also anxious to forge a constructive dialogue with the new army chief General Raheel Sharif, who is expected to be at the centre of decision making on sensitive security questions.
“Issues concerning defence relationship, Pak-US bilateral ties and regional stability came under discussion,” the Pakistan military said after Hagel met the army chief, who last month succeeded General Ashfaq Kayani.
Pakistan is seen as crucial to peace in neighbouring Afghanistan as it was a key backer of the hardline 1996-2001 Taliban regime in Kabul and is believed to shelter some of the movement's leaders.
Pakistan is also battling a homegrown Islamist insurgency but US officials have long accused Islamabad's spy service of maintaining ties to the Afghan Taliban, as a hedge to counter any potential threat from India in Afghanistan.
Hagel visited Pakistan after two days in Afghanistan, where he urged the country's president, Hamid Karzai, to sign a long-delayed security agreement that will allow Nato-led forces to stay in the country after 2014.
Hagel began his trip last week in Bahrain, seeking to reassure Gulf allies that the United States would retain a robust military presence in the region despite an interim nuclear deal with Iran.
After morning meetings in Pakistan, Hagel was due to travel to Saudi Arabia and Qatar, where he was expected to renew his message of solidarity with the Gulf Arab states.
The Saudis in particular are wary of the diplomatic opening with Tehran as they view Shia-led Iran as a regional rival.
The last Pentagon chief to visit Pakistan was Robert Gates in January 2010.

Sharif risks straining ties with military, warns US intelligence report

WASHINGTON: Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif may strain his relations with the new army chief if he continues to expand his policy-making powers, warns a US intelligence report.

The report, presented before the US Senate Select Committee on Intelligence on Wednesday, notes that Mr Sharif is seeking to “acquire a more central policy-making role” for civilians in areas that the Army has traditionally dominated.
“His push for an increased role in foreign policy and national security will probably test his relationship with the new Chief of Army Staff, particularly if the Army believes that the civilian government’s position impinges on Army interests” the report warns.
But it also notes that the prime minister has publically stated that the Army and the civilian government are “on the same page.”
The annual report is an assessment of the threats the United States may have to deal with in 2014 and is compiled jointly by all US intelligence agencies.
Pakistan figures prominently in a chapter on South Asia, which predicts that Prime Minister Sharif’s primary focus in 2014 will be on improving the economy, including the energy sector, and countering security threats.
The report says that Mr Sharif probably won the May 2013 election primarily because the previous government failed to improve either the economy or the generation of electricity.
It also notes that in September 2013, Islamabad secured an IMF program and met the conditions for fiscal and energy reforms under its three-year, $6.7 billion Extended Fund Facility. This paved the way for a second disbursement of $550 million in December.
But the report warns that “continued use of scarce foreign exchange reserves by the State Bank of Pakistan, to prop up the Pakistani rupee might make future disbursements difficult.”
The US intelligence community informs the Senate that Pakistan wants good relations with the United States “but cooperation with Washington will continue to be vulnerable to strains, particularly due to Pakistani sensitivities toward perceived violations of sovereignty.”
It notes that Prime Minister Sharif entered office seeking to establish good relations with the United States, especially in areas that support his primary domestic focus of improving the economy.
Mr Sharif and his advisers were pleased with his late October 2013 visit to Washington. Pakistan was eager to restart a “strategic dialogue’ and its offices and press have touted results of the initial meetings of several of the five workings that comprise the dialogue.
The report notes that Mr Sharif also seeks rapprochement with New Delhi in part in anticipation of increased trade, which would be beneficial to Pakistan’s economic growth. Mr Sharif will probably move cautiously to improve relations, however, and India also will probably not take any bold steps, particularly not before the Indian elections in Spring 2014.
The two other South Asian nations that drew the attention of the US intelligence community are Afghanistan and India.
Afghanistan
The report notes that the status of the Bilateral Security Arrangement remains unresolved despite its endorsement but the Afghan leaders during the mid-November 2013 Loya Jirga. Regardless of the status of the BSA, the bilateral relationship still might be strained if Afghan officials believe that US commitments to Afghanistan fall short of their expectations.
The IMF estimated that Afghanistan’s GDP growth rate fell from 12 per cent in 2012 to 3.1 per cent in 2013. It forecasts four to eight per cent growth in2014 and beyond, largely because of reduced ISAF expectations.
Afghan elections in 2014 will be an important step in the country’s democratic development. President Hamid Karzai has stated that he will step down after the election; eleven candidates are currently competing to succeed him.
The Taliban, confident in its ability to outlast ISAF and committed to returning to power, will challenge government control over some of the Pashtun countryside, especially in the South and East. The Taliban senior leadership will maintain a structured and resilient leadership system. The Afghan National Security Forces, however, will probably maintain control of most major cities as long as external financial support continues.
India
The report on India includes an assessment of New Delhi’s desire to improve relations with Pakistan. It says that India shares US objectives for a stable and democratic Pakistan that can encourage trade and economic integration between South and Central Asia. We judge that India and Pakistan will seek modest progress in minimally controversial areas, such as trade, while probably deferring serious discussion on territorial disagreements and terrorism.
India will continue to cooperate with the United States on the future of Afghanistan following the drawdown of international forces. India also shares concerns about the resurgence of the Taliban in Afghanistan, seeing it as a long-term security threat and source of regional instability.
India and China have attempted to reduce long-standing border tensions through confidence-building measures, such as holding the first bilateral military exercise in five years in November 2013 and signing a Border Defence Cooperation Agreement during Prime Minister Manmohan Singh’s visit to China in October 2013.
However, mutual suspicions will likely persist.
In this election year in particular, coalition politics and institutional challenges will remain the primary drivers of India’s economy and foreign policy decision making.
Any future government installed after the 2014 election will probably have a positive view of the United States, but future legislation or policy changes that are consistent with US interests in not assured.
Coalition politics will almost certainly dominate Indian governance. Since the 1984 national elections, no party has won a clear majority in the lower house of Parliament.
We judge that this trend will continue with the 2014 elections, and the proliferation of political parties will further complicate political consensus building.
In 2014, India will probably attain a 5 percent average annual growth rate, significantly less than the 8 percent growth that it achieved from 2005 to 2012 and that is needed to achieve its policy goals.