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| In this file photo Malaysia Airlines Boeing 777-200ER that disappeared
from air traffic control screens Saturday, taking off from
Roissy-Charles de Gaulle Airport in France. (AP) |
The most dangerous parts of a flight are takeoff and landing. Rarely
do incidents happen when a plane is cruising seven miles above the
earth.
So the disappearance of a Malaysia Airlines jet well into its flight
Saturday morning over the South China Sea has led aviation experts to
assume that whatever happened was quick and left the pilots no time to
place a distress call.
It could take investigators months, if not years, to determine what
happened to the Boeing 777 flying from Malaysia’s largest city of Kuala
Lumpur to Beijing.
“At this early stage, we’re focusing on the facts that we don’t
know,” said Todd Curtis, a former safety engineer with Boeing who worked
on its 777 jumbo jets and is now director of the Airsafe.com
Foundation.
If there was a minor mechanical failure _ or even something more
serious like the shutdown of both of the plane’s engines – the pilots
likely would have had time to radio for help. The lack of a call
“suggests something very sudden and very violent happened,” said William
Waldock, who teaches accident investigation at Embry-Riddle
Aeronautical University in Prescott, Ariz.
It initially appears that there was either an abrupt breakup of the
plane or something that led it into a quick, steep dive. Some experts
even suggested an act of terrorism or a pilot purposely crashing the
jet.
“Either you had a catastrophic event that tore the airplane apart, or
you had a criminal act,” said Scott Hamilton, managing director of
aviation consultancy Leeham Co. “It was so quick and they didn’t radio.”
No matter how unlikely a scenario, it’s too early to rule out any
possibilities, experts warn. The best clues will come with the recovery
of the flight data and voice recorders and an examination of the
wreckage.
Airplane crashes typically occur during takeoff and the climb away
from an airport, or while coming in for a landing, as in last year’s
fatal crash of an Asiana Airlines jet in San Francisco. Just 9 percent
of fatal accidents happen when a plane is at cruising altitude,
according to a statistical summary of commercial jet airplane accidents
done by Boeing.
Capt. John M. Cox, who spent 25 years flying for US Airways and is
now CEO of Safety Operating Systems, said that whatever happened to the
Malaysia Airlines jet, it occurred quickly. The problem had to be big
enough, he said, to stop the plane’s transponder from broadcasting its
location, although the transponder can be purposely shut off from the
cockpit.
One of the first indicators of what happened will be the size of the
debris field. If it is large and spread out over tens of miles, then the
plane likely broke apart at a high elevation. That could signal a bomb
or a massive airframe failure. If it is a smaller field, the plane
probably fell from 35,000 feet intact, breaking up upon contact with the
water.
“We know the airplane is down. Beyond that, we don’t know a whole lot,” Cox said.
The Boeing 777 has one of the best safety records in aviation
history. It first carried passengers in June 1995 and went 18 years
without a fatal accident. That streak came to an end with the July 2013
Asiana crash. Three of the 307 people aboard that flight died.
Saturday’s Malaysia Airlines flight carrying 239 passengers and crew
would only be the second fatal incident for the aircraft type.
“It’s one of the most reliable airplanes ever built,” said John
Goglia, a former member of the U.S. National Transportation Safety
Board.
Some of the possible causes for the plane disappearing include:
- A catastrophic structural failure of the airframe or its
Rolls-Royce Trent 800 engines. Most aircraft are made of aluminum which
is susceptible to corrosion over time, especially in areas of high
humidity. But given the plane’s long history and impressive safety
record, experts suggest this is unlikely.
More of a threat to the plane’s integrity is the constant
pressurization and depressurization of the cabin for takeoff and
landing. In April 2011, a Southwest Airlines Boeing 737 made an
emergency landing shortly after takeoff from Phoenix after the plane’s
fuselage ruptured, causing a 5-foot tear. The plane, with 118 people on
board, landed safely. But such a rupture is less likely in this case.
Airlines fly the 777 on longer distances, with many fewer takeoffs and
landings, putting less stress on the airframe.
” It’s not like this was Southwest Airlines doing 10 flights a day,”
Hamilton said. “There’s nothing to suggest there would be any fatigue
issues.”
- Bad weather. Planes are designed to fly through most severe storms.
However, in June 2009, an Air France flight from Rio de Janeiro to
Paris crashed during a bad storm over the Atlantic Ocean. Ice built up
on the Airbus A330′s airspeed indicators, giving false readings. That,
and bad decisions by the pilots, led the plane into a stall causing it
to plummet into the sea. All 228 passengers and crew aboard died. The
pilots never radioed for help.
In the case of Saturday’s Malaysia Airlines flight, all indications show that there were clear skies.
- Pilot disorientation. Curtis said that the pilots could have taken
the plane off autopilot and somehow went off course and didn’t realize
it until it was too late. The plane could have flown for another five or
six hours from its point of last contact, putting it up to 3,000 miles
away. This is unlikely given that the plane probably would have been
picked up by radar somewhere. But it’s too early to eliminate it as a
possibility.
- Failure of both engines. In January 2008, a British Airways 777
crashed about 1,000 feet short of the runway at London’s Heathrow
Airport. As the plane was coming in to land, the engines lost thrust
because of ice buildup in the fuel system. There were no fatalities.
Loss of both engines is possible in this case, but Hamilton said the
plane could glide for up to 20 minutes, giving pilots plenty of time to
make an emergency call. When a US Airways A320 lost both of its engines
in January 2009 after taking off from LaGuardia Airport in New York it
was at a much lower elevation. But Capt. Chesley B. “Sully” Sullenberger
still had plenty of communications with air traffic controllers before
ending the six-minute flight in the Hudson River.
- A bomb. Several planes have been brought down including Pan Am
Flight 103 between London and New York in December 1988. There was also
an Air India flight in June 1985 between Montreal and London and a plane
in September 1989 flown by French airline Union des Transports Aériens
which blew up over the Sahara.
- Hijacking. A traditional hijacking seems unlikely given that a
plane’s captors typically land at an airport and have some type of
demand. But a 9/11-like hijacking is possible, with terrorists forcing
the plane into the ocean.
- Pilot suicide. There were two large jet crashes in the late 1990s _
a SilkAir flight and an EgyptAir flight_ that are believed to have been
caused by pilots deliberately crashing the planes. Government crash
investigators never formally declared the crashes suicides but both are
widely acknowledged by crash experts to have been caused by deliberate
pilot actions.
- Accidental shoot-down by some country’s military. In July 1988, the
United States Navy missile cruiser USS Vincennes accidently shot down
an Iran Air flight, killing all 290 passengers and crew. In September
1983, a Korean Air Lines flight was shot down by a Russian fighter jet.
