KARACHI: By
giving a call for a ‘million march’ to Islamabad on August 14, leading
opposition leader Imran Khan is perhaps optimistic that the present army
chief General Raheel Sharif will do the same for him what the former
army chief General Ashfaq Parvez Kayani did for Nawaz Sharif, though
neither he nor the general had any answers to his demands but rather
‘questions.’
Nawaz Sharif’s ‘long march’ for the
restoration of judges was halted at Gujranwala and after the
interference of Gen. Kayani, the former prime minister and former
president Asif Ali Zardari restored Chief Justice was among those
politicians who sided with Sharif on restoration.
Zardari
was against his restoration and only agreed after immense pressure. It
was also Zardari who for the first time declared last elections as the
“Elections of Returning Officers.” Today Khan is also saying the same.
Perhaps
Khan is hopeful of a similar kind of interference and believes if he
managed to gather few millions, the government of Sharif may “fall.”
What he is not realising is the “fall of democracy” in the process,
because such a situation would create a “constitutional deadlock.”
But
what disturbed me most was his “tone” which reflects an anarchist
tendency in otherwise a very “cool Captain.” Did Imran Khan realise the
outcome of his remarks about personally “hanging “ policemen if they
tried to stop his “Long March” or used force. He may not do that, but
what if his emotional workers enforced his orders, in their own way?
Imran
should have known that how the interim setup was constituted in 2013.
How the chairman of the Election Commission was nominated with
consensus. He himself was the firm support of former Chief Justice of
Pakistan Iftikhar Chaudhry even when he himself appeared in a “contempt
of court” case against him.
The media took Altaf Hussain
to task for his remarks about “three swords.” What about these remarks
of Khan. Earlier, Dr Tahirul Qadri had also threatened that policemen
would be “dragged” on the streets if they did not behave and followed
illegal orders.
So, I wonder who can answer these
questions. The most surprising of them was about the 11 pm speech of
Nawaz Sharif. I request him to please go through the past elections and
see whether from Zulfikar Ali Bhutto to Benazir Bhutto and Nawaz Sharif,
has made such claims on the day of elections or not. He should also
enquire how many channels (not GEO alone) showed his speech.
As
for the rest of his demands or questions, it relates to the Election
Commission, the judiciary and to the caretaker government. Thus it’s
quite clear that he has already made up his mind for an all-out attack
on the government even if it leads to “military interference”.
Dr
Tahirul Qadri is also gearing up to create unrest in the country and
may go shoulder to shoulder to Khan, even if they are not united.At
present, the opposition stands divided. Major parties in parliament have
refused to side with Imran Khan and Tahirul Qadri, as they fear their
movement could derail the democratic process.
There is
opposition led by Tahirul Qadri and backed by PML-Q that wants to change
the “system.” Then, there is opposition led by Imran Khan, who has set
one month deadline to the government, failing which he would lead a
“million march.”
The opposition led by Pakistan People’s
Party (PPP) is though critical of government policies, it wants the
PML-N-led government to complete its term.Except for the PTI, they enjoy
the support of other opposition parties on this issue.
Qadri’s
APC shows that the PML-N, PPP, ANP and JUI are on the one side and the
PTI, PAT, PML-Q and MQM are on the side of the political spectrum.Dr
Qadri, who intends to bring his “green revolution” already received a
setback when major opposition parties, including the PTI, refused to
join what once was aimed as “Grand Opposition Alliance.” His frustration
was clearly reflected when he left after giving statement that he never
tried for GOC, causing embarrassment to Chaudhries of Gujrat. He also
surprised the two Chaudhries when he said: “I never want change of
government, but struggling to change the system.”
The
decision for the GOC was taken in the London meeting and veteran
politician Chaudhry Shujaat Hussain was given the task. The two parties —
Pakistan Awami Tehreek and Pakistan Muslim League — got the first shock
when Khan despite his presence in London stayed away from Dr Qadri and
Chaudhries. They got the second shock when Khan and PTI’s core committee
officially turned down the offer of joining hands with the PAT and PML.
The third shock came when even the MQM, which otherwise supported Dr
Qadri, also kept distance from GOC formula, at least at this stage.
All
these aftershocks created a major dent in the “take-off” of the green
revolution. It would now be interesting to see how many parties will
attend Dr Qadri’s All Parties Conference on Monday, which would be on
“one point agenda” i.e. incident of Model Town. Since almost all
parties, including the PPP, PTI, JI and others, condemned police firing
and killing of 14 people, the PAT is hopeful that they all would attend
the APC.
However, Ch. Shujaat and Ch. Pervez Elahi, the
two key players and supporters of Dr Qadri, are still optimistic that
many parties would join the GOC.One man army, Sheikh Rasheed Ahmad, who
looks like a 12th man of both Imran Khan and Dr Qadri, for the first
time feared that if the two leaders and parties did not come on one
platform and unite, the opposition stands no chance of getting rid of
the government.
Ahmad, who had seen many opposition
movements, knows well that there are two factors which ensure the
success of any movement. One, grand alliance of major opposition parties
including those capable of creating unrest; two, the backing of
establishment.
Chaudhries too were well aware of these
facts. Perhaps, that is why Ch. Shujaat Hussain a few days back hinted
at the presence of “Political Cell” of ISI, which he claimed still
exists and also defended its presence. However, he said, he was not
“directly in touch” with them.
The statement did not get
much attention in the media nor did the government or the ISPR react,
though it did raise a serious question if the “Political Cell” has been
revived. During the Asghar Khan case, the previous government had
submitted that the cell had been closed.
The political
cell, which had been operating since the government of former Prime
Minister Zulfikar Ali Bhutto was allegedly used by successive regimes
and intelligence agencies for political maneuvering. It was finally
exposed when veteran politician Asghar Khan in 1996 filed a petition
with the Supreme Court and raised this question regarding distribution
of money in the 1990 elections to opposition alliance called Islami
Jamhoori Ittehad, IJI, the brain-child of former ISI chief General (R)
Hameed Gul.
Dr Qadri was also disappointed over the cold
response of the army.Prior to his arrival, he asked the army chief to
provide him security and that the army should take over the security of
Benazir International Airport, Rawalpindi. He again did not get any
response from the army when a foreign airline plane was diverted to
Lahore. He wanted senior army officers, including the Corp Commander
Lahore, to come out and assure him security.
The only
factor, which so far went in his favor is the “media.” He is getting
maximum media coverage but what he does not know that if his dream of
“green revolution” fizzled out he may face a very tough media.
Imran
Khan, on the other hand, also looks confused after setting the
“deadline” for the government and giving the time frame for an
anti-government movement. In the past three months, he has often
reviewed his earlier statements. He once stated that he would disclose
the name of a Brigadier of Military Intelligence (MI) whom he accused of
playing a role in rigging. He then stated that he never meant that a
serving Brig was involved. He again withheld the name of even the
retired brigadier, which he was supposed to name in the public meeting.
Similarly,
Khan in an interview with well-known anchor Shahzeb Khanzada first
stated that after the deadline he would dissolve the Khyber Pakhtunkhawa
government and would also resign from the Assemblies. But within 24
hours after the statement he once again reviewed his decision after
facing harsh criticism not only from the opposition, but also from his
allies like the Jamaat-e-Islami. Khan did not realise that the KP
Assembly could elect a new Leader of the House, comprising PML-N, JUI-F
and other smaller groups.
Even if Khan decides to quit the
NA, he may face a mini revolt within the party in the KP where the PTI
is facing a serious internal rift.
Khan, who has the
charisma and also enjoys good following in the masses, also has the
reputation of putting his party in an embarrassing position on different
occasions. The PTI central leadership once took him to task when during
the last elections he announced on TV that he would go to Sheikh
Rasheed Ahmad’s public meeting without taking the party into confidence.
He was reminded not to repeat such mistakes.
Thus when he initially stated in the interview that he would dissolve the KP government, even the party leaders were shocked.
But
to the credit of Khan, it was because of his personality that the party
managed to come out of a serious crisis within, whether it is party
elections or mini revolt against the KP Chief Minister Pervez Khattak.
Thus
in the present scenario, the chances of success for Dr Qadri or Imran
Khan look very bleak. Sharif government is not as weak as it looked
like. The opposition movement is so far confined to Punjab, the strong
base of Sharif, where they have been ruling since 1985. The division
within the opposition’s rank and file is too sharp and more importantly
the civil-military relationship in the last two months has improved,
though they are not completely on the same page on certain issues. The
army does not want political unrest particularly during the operation,
which may take some time though they want to complete the major phase
before winter.
However, if Khan and Qadri along with Altaf
Hussain launch a joint movement and manage some half a million people
in the “Combined Long March,” things can be different for the
government.
There is no chance of movement like the 1977
as those factors do not exist. The situation is also different from what
it was before the elections of 1988 when the then ISI created IJI and
backed anti-PPP forces.
Despite odds against the
opposition, Khan certainly poses a greater political threat to PML-N
than the PPP in the Punjab. Thus the future political battle would be
fight in Punjab and there could be certain forces which now want to
weaken the PML-N in Punjab to end its political supremacy.
On
the other hand, Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif is now seriously
considering veteran politician Mahmood Khan Achakzai’s proposal for
forming a “Pro Democratic Front,” comprising parties which believe that
the present system should continue despite differences with the
government and a change should only come within the parameters of the
Constitution.
However, the opposition which supported
Achakzai, includes the PPP, which is not happy with the government’s
handling of Tahirul Qadri’s welcome reception, but sees Qadri’s movement
as “anti -democracy.”
The government overreacted in panic
and now by initiating a probe against Dr Qadri it is perhaps giving him
too much importance either out of fear or some personal reasons.
Major
political developments are expected after Eid, as Khan has set the
“deadline” and has thrown the ball in Sharif’s court. The prime minister
did the right thing by inviting Khan to visit the IDPS camps. Sensing
the move, Khan also stayed away because of his public meeting but he did
allow the KP chief minister to accompany the PM.
Now, it
would be interesting to see Sharif’s next move. Will he invite Khan for
discussion on his demands, may be on “Iftar.” He will certainly be
trying to isolate Dr Qadri, Chaudhries of Gujrat and Sheikh Rasheed
Ahmad.
The role of the army in the last six years has been
pro-democracy despite having reservations about certain issues, both
during the PPP’s five years and the PML-N’s one year. Yet, it seems some
politicians are trying to drag the army into politics. In the present
political scenario, there is no immediate threat to the government or
democracy. Major parties are convinced that the PML-N must be given full
chance to complete its tenure, but they believe that the government
should not create a situation of pushing the opposition to the wall.
Now,
one has to wait and see how Khan, Dr Qadri and Sharifs play their cards
in the next three months. Major opposition parties, including the PTI,
is not very convinced with Dr Qadri’s agenda while parties like PPP feel
that he is “unfit” for democracy.
As has happened in our
political history, it’s not the opposition strength or power but the
government weakness and political blunders, which create vacuum that is
often filled by “un-democratic forces.” 1968, 1971 and 1977 are before
us. The era of “Political Cell” is over as the fourth pillar, the media,
irrespective of how irresponsible it may be, would be there to defend
democracy.
